Technical Outlook

-Gold’s technical outlook hints at a potential correction from overbought territory, with initial support at $2,154 and further key levels at $2,145 and $2,114, while a bullish reversal would require sustaining above $2,200.

-GBP/USD’s recent surge past 1.2825 could target 1.3000 and 1.3140 if bullish momentum continues; however, a shift to bearish sentiment may see support at previous resistance, followed by 1.2710 and the level around 50-day SMA.

Top of Form

US (USD): U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

The previous reading was 0.3%, more than the expected 0.2%. The next report is due on March 12, 2024 at 12:30 GMT. Its forecast stands at 0.4%.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis:

The near-term technical outlook for Gold suggests we may be on the cusp of a correction, particularly due to an overbought 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart.

If a corrective phase does initiate, those watching Gold’s price closely could expect it to dip towards an initial support level at $2,154 – the lowest price point observed on Friday. Should the price continue its descent, the next significant level of support is pegged at $2,145. This particular threshold aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical marker derived from the recent rally starting from a low of $1,984 on February 14 to an all-time high of $2,195. Breaking below this could signal further downside towards the 38.2% Fib level at $2,114, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

On the flip side, for the bullish trend to resume, buyers need to push and sustain Gold above the $2,200 mark. The upcoming economic data, including the U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail sales figures, will be instrumental in determining the metal’s short-term trajectory, whether it leads to a pullback or a continued ascent.

Pivot Points: XAUUSD

UK (GBP): U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) MoM

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

The previous reading was -0.1% better than the expected -0.2%. The upcoming report is due on March 13, 2024 at 07:00 GMT. Its forecast stands at 0.2%.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis:

Last week, the GBP/USD currency pair experienced a notable surge, successfully overcoming a significant resistance level near 1.2820 zone as we approached the weekend.

This bullish momentum, if maintained in the coming days, could embolden traders to set their sights on the psychologically important 1.3000 mark. Breaching this threshold may pave the way for further upward movement, with the next target being the 1.3140 level.

Conversely, should market sentiment shift towards bearishness, the initial line of support can be found at the recently surpassed 1.2820 level. If the GBP/USD continues to retreat, the next support level to watch would be at 1.2710. A further decline would draw traders’ attention to the 50-day simple moving average, which is currently positioned around 1.2620, serving as a critical juncture for future price action.

Pivot Points: GBPUSD

Vantage does not represent or warrant that the material provided here is accurate, current, or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. The information provided here, whether from a third party or not, is not to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments; or to participate in any specific trading strategy. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information is not permitted.